The Premier League could soon be overtaken by Serie A in the UEFA Association Rankings

The UEFA associations’ club coefficients rankings determine the number of places allocated to an association (country) in forthcoming UEFA club competitions. The rankings are based on the results of each association’s clubs in the five previous UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League seasons.

At the end of the 2016-17 season, the complete 5-year rankings were as follows:

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Country 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Pts
1 Spain 17.714 23.000 20.214 23.928 20.142 104.998
2 Germany 17.928 14.714 15.857 16.428 14.571 79.498
3 England 16.428 16.785 13.571 14.250 14.928 75.962
4 Italy 14.416 14.166 19.000 11.500 14.250 73.332
5 France 11.750 8.500 10.916 11.083 14.416 56.665
6 Russia 9.750 10.416 9.666 11.500 9.200 50.532
7 Portugal 11.750 9.916 9.083 10.500 8.083 49.332
8 Ukraine 9.500 7.833 10.000 9.800 5.500 42.633
9 Belgium 6.500 6.400 9.600 7.400 12.500 42.400
10 Turkey 10.200 6.700 6.000 6.600 9.700 39.200

 

Having become the first country to have an association coefficient of over 100 in 2014-15, Spain continued its unprecedented domination of European football, finishing with a 3-digit coefficient for the third year running. Germany and England maintained their positions at No. 2 and No. 3 in the rankings respectively.

However, this season it could turn into a real dog fight between England and Italy for the 3rd spot in the rankings. Following this season, the 2012-13 season – where the Premier League clubs performed better than the Serie A clubs – would drop out of the 5-year ranking span and be replaced by the performances of the 2017-18 season.

Without taking the 2012-13 season into consideration, this is how the rankings would look as of now:

Country 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Pts
1 Spain 23.000 20.214 23.928 20.142 87.284
2 Germany 14.714 15.857 16.428 14.571 61.570
3 England 16.785 13.571 14.250 14.928 59.534
4 Italy 14.166 19.000 11.500 14.250 58.916
5 France 8.500 10.916 11.083 14.416 44.915
6 Russia 10.416 9.666 11.500 9.200 40.782
7 Portugal 9.916 9.083 10.500 8.083 37.582
8 Belgium 6.400 9.600 7.400 12.500 35.900
9 Ukraine 7.833 10.000 9.800 5.500 33.133
10 Turkey 6.700 6.000 6.600 9.700 29.000

 

Now the difference between England and Italy is just 0.618. That means if the Italian clubs manage to get a coefficient better than the English by just 0.618 this season, we would see Italy rise to number 3 in the rankings. Even if Italy don’t manage to overtake England this season, they’ll probably have a decent shot next season as well, since the English clubs did slightly better in the 2013-14 season too.

The one good thing for the Premier League clubs right now is that UEFA has announced that all the top 4 highest ranked associations will have 4 teams in the UEFA Champions League group stage from 2018. Thus, they are at least not in danger of losing out on 1 Champions League berth in the near future.

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